Nuclear Power Poised for Major Growth: IAEA Forecasts Doubling Capacity by 2050, Led by SMRs

September 22, 2025

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has significantly boosted its projections for nuclear power, forecasting a potential doubling of global nuclear capacity by 2050. This optimistic outlook, detailed in the agency’s latest report, highlights the pivotal role of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and the extension of existing reactor lifespans in achieving this growth.

Key Takeaways

Global nuclear capacity could more than double by 2050, reaching up to 992 GW in a high-case scenario.
Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are expected to contribute significantly to new capacity additions.
Extending the operational life of existing nuclear reactors is crucial for maintaining current capacity.
Climate concerns, rising electricity demand, and policy support are driving renewed interest in nuclear energy.

IAEA’s Optimistic Projections

The IAEA’s 45th edition of "Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050" suggests that nuclear capacity could expand from 377 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to nearly 992 GW by 2050, representing a 2.6-fold increase. This projection marks the fifth consecutive year the agency has revised its forecasts upwards, reflecting a growing global consensus on nuclear energy’s importance for clean and reliable electricity. IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi emphasized that nuclear power is now seen as indispensable for achieving global energy and climate goals.

The Crucial Role of SMRs

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are identified as a key differentiator between the IAEA’s high and low-case scenarios. In the high-case projection, SMRs are anticipated to supply 24% of the new nuclear capacity added by 2050, compared to just 5% in the low-case scenario. SMRs are favored for their potential to be safer, more cost-effective, and quicker to deploy than traditional large-scale reactors, making them particularly attractive for countries with smaller grids or developing infrastructure. The IAEA is actively supporting the global understanding and deployment of SMRs through initiatives like SMR Schools.

Driving Factors and Challenges

Several factors are contributing to the renewed optimism for nuclear power. These include increasing global concerns about climate change, a rise in electricity demand driven by technological advancements and industrial expansion, and policy support from governments. Furthermore, financial backing from development banks and the strategic decision to extend the operational lifetimes of existing nuclear reactors are also playing significant roles. However, scaling up nuclear power presents challenges, including the need for substantial annual capacity additions, addressing the aging nuclear fleet, and ensuring adequate financing and regulatory frameworks, especially for new technologies like SMRs.

Extending Reactor Lifetimes

Another critical element highlighted by the IAEA is the extension of operating licenses for existing nuclear power plants. This is considered the most cost-effective method to maintain nuclear energy’s contribution to the grid. Without new builds or life extensions, a substantial portion of the current nuclear capacity could be lost in the coming decades. The IAEA’s high-case scenario assumes that only 81 GW of capacity will retire by 2050, while the low-case scenario anticipates 156 GW of retirements.

Future Outlook

The IAEA’s projections are closely tied to the expected doubling of global electricity consumption by 2050. As electricity plays an increasingly larger role in overall energy use, nuclear power is positioned to be a significant contributor to the clean energy transition. The agency’s increasing forecasts signal a growing confidence in nuclear energy’s potential to provide reliable, low-carbon power for the future.